Learn/+ev
What is positive EV?
A coin that pays you — sometimes
+EV is not ‘this bet wins.’ It is ‘if I took this price a thousand times, I come out ahead.’ Tonight can still be red.
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A 55% coin paying even money
True chance 55%. Shop still pays +100. Expected edge +$10 per $100 — and plenty of red flips.
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Imagine a coin that lands heads 55% of the time, but a stall still pays even money. Each flip can lose. A sack of flips prints money. That sack is +EV.
We do not invent the 55%. We take Pinnacle (then Circa), peel the juice, and call that True. If DraftKings is still paying 2.20 when True is 2.05, the gap is the edge on the Value board.
A 4% number loses most of the time. That is not a broken tool. That is variance. The close (CLV) is how you know the process is good before the sample is huge.
Grade A is the bucket that has historically paid on that style of print. B is real edge, including live. C is intel — look, don’t auto-fire.
takeawayFair from Pinnacle True. If a shop pays more than fair, that is the edge. Grade A/B/C tells you how much history likes that kind of number.